iPhone Air, Foldable iPhone, and iPad
There are rumors iPhone Air is a stepping stone toward a possible foldable iPhone set for 2026, 27, or even 28. Some are already speculating Apple will adopt foldable form factor starting with iPhone 18; hence, they added, iPhone 17 is less likely to succeed from the usual upgrade cycle. We won’t know the sales figure for a while, but I’m seeing two contradictory coverages on the new iPhone — either it was an unusual flop, or it was unusually high in demand, especially the base iPhone.
The new iPhone Air does speak Apple’s usual, if not straight up impractical, obsessions. Smaller devices, or thinner devices, do have its place. But as the case is settled with phablets and the growing bar type form factor sizes, being small, or let alone thin, doesn’t sell a device. There were guesses as to whether or not flip style foldable smartphones would be able to entice the fans of smaller smartphones; but as far as I understand it, both form factors are still too niche to even make a dent in the form factor games.
Mark Gurman from Bloomberg is now suggesting the foldable iPhone will be two iPhone Airs in one. His analysis seems to be on the spot. iPhone Air, from the reviews I’ve read so far, does pack a punch of near “Pro” level iPhones, with the promised battery life, albeit physically smaller capacity, and reduced number of camera sensors. If Apple were to double the size of iPhone Air and add the hinge, the proposed device would still have ample space for battery, actual “Pro” chips, and possibly all the camera sensors of the Pro models as well. In the perfect world, iPhone foldable made from two iPhone Airs would come in at 11.2 mm thickness, only 2.45 mm (roughly 0.1 inches) thicker than iPhone 17 Pro when closed.
There are only two nuances that these reports are missing: iPads and display panels. iPads are the most popular tablets currently sold, and frankly, I don’t think much of the Android manufacturers, let alone Google, are serious with tablet devices. It’s understandable why. The tablet market is already saturated, and iPad is already known to have a ‘spork’ problem — it’s neither a smartphone nor a laptop. The size of the smartphones are steadily increasing every year, and should the foldable take off properly, it is very likely foldable smartphone would cover the missing Android tablet product lines. On iOS front, iPadOS is hardly equipped to be an independent work horse, though Apple is still pushing the effort. Should the future iPhone have a foldable display, doubling in width based on iPhone Air’s, it would have roughly 8-inches display, similar to that of iPad Mini’s 8.3-inches display.
Unless Apple is willing to give up on iPad lines entirely, it is very likely the proposed foldable iPhones would cannibalize the tablet products. iPad would either end like iPod Touch did, slowly chewed away by iPhone, or act as a transitional product until such a time it also meets the fate of iPod Touch. Though I’ve seen fair shares of Android smartphone with iPad mix in the wild, but if Apple decides to push the boundaries from the smartphone, the company may need to reduce the current iPad lines to what is effectively non-smartphone iPhones. The irony of it all is cellular iPads do exist; so it is very likely we would still see a cellular version of the transitory device.
The other flagrant problem on hand is the source of the display panel, or lack thereof its rumors. There are only few manufacturers that can make foldable display panels, let alone in quantity Apple demands. Statistics from 2023 suggest there were total of 18.1 million foldable smartphones sold globally, whereas 231.3 million iPhones were sold in the same year. We can safely assume Apple wouldn’t phase out bar type smartphones on the fly, but we can also safely assume there will be higher demand for the completely different form factor. Even if it’s only one-tenth of the total sales, it would ask of the suppliers to simply double their production capacities. In other words, we would be hearing far more “rumors” of the panels that are suspiciously the size of iPhones being made. Some of the Korean articles cite anonymous tipsters saying the foldable display line is being prepared in South Korea for 6-8 million units. Again, I find it unlikely Apple is looking for an “iPhone” that sells less than 10 million.
One of the reasons why I ended up doing a trade-in for my iPad was the Apple Silicon MacBook Air — it’s more capable, has equally good display and battery life. If I wanted to watch Netflix on the go, MacBook Air can be that entertainment device easily. Should Apple decides to push for a foldable at the same price point as the current Pro models, no doubt I would be tempted to consider it. After all, my iPhone has been running triple duties between being the streaming device, eBook reader, and just a general smartphone; and having a bigger display for streaming and eBook wouldn’t hurt. But at the quoted $2000+ price point from the rumors, I’d rather buy another laptop stand.